| 蚕茧需求模型预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈文虎,李瑞,沈卫德. 蚕茧需求模型预测与分析[J]. 蚕业科学, 2006, 32(4): 562-567 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈文虎 李瑞 沈卫德 |
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| 作者单位： | 苏州大学社会学院,苏州,215123;苏州大学生命科学学院,苏州,215123 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家茧丝绸发展风险基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用多种数学模型,对我国的蚕茧需求趋势、蚕茧供求的均衡水平以及影响蚕茧需求的因素进行预测和分析。研究结果表明：我国的蚕茧需求量有不断上升的趋势,2006～2010年蚕茧需求量将达到61～72万t；蚕茧的供求均衡理论量约为51．48万t,鲜茧收购均衡价格为1．745 1万元/t；对蚕茧需求起主要作用的因素依次是蚕茧生产量、蚕茧价格,而生丝价格的作用力最弱。
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| 关 键 词： | 蚕茧需求 数量分析 蚕茧产量 蚕茧价格 生丝价格 |
| 文章编号： | 0257-4799(2006)04-0560-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-21 |
Forecast and Analysis of Silkworm Cocoon Demand Model |
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| CHEN Wen-Hu,LI Rui,SHEN Wei-De. Forecast and Analysis of Silkworm Cocoon Demand Model[J]. Acta Sericologica Sinica, 2006, 32(4): 562-567 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Wen-Hu LI Rui SHEN Wei-De |
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| Abstract: | The demand tendency,the balanced level of supply and demand and influencing factors of the silk- worm cocoon in China were forecasted and analyzed by some kinds of mathematical models.The results showed that the demand quantity of silkworm cocoon is rising continuously and will reach 610～720 thousands tons,that the theoretical demand quantity annually is 514.8 thousands tons and the average purchase price of fresh cocoon is 17451 RMB yuan per ton,and that the main factors aftecting the cocoon demand are output of silkworm cocoon,price of the cocoon and the price of raw silk succesively. |
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| Keywords: | Silkworm cocoon demand Quantity analysis Silkworm cocoon output Silkworm cocoon price Raw silk price |
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