Age-period-cohort analysis of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Switzerland

Cattle born after animal-feed control measures were implemented in 1990 have become BSE cases in Switzerland, indicating sub-optimal effectiveness of these measures. To evaluate these measures, the incidence of BSE cases in Switzerland recorded through clinical case reporting from January 1991 to June 2000 (categorized into age groups and birth cohorts of 6-month duration) was analyzed by Poisson log-linear regression using an age–period–cohort model. The incidence was maximum in the cattle cohort born from October 1989 to March 1990, and dropped to zero in the cohort born from April to September 1991. A second peak was observed in a cohort born from April to September 1994. The first drop of incidence is interpreted as a result of initial implementation of the feed ban in 1990. The second peak might be related to exposure of cattle to feed intended for pigs and poultry.