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| 人工林落叶松木材生长轮密度时间序列分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈广胜,葛利,郭仲凯. 人工林落叶松木材生长轮密度时间序列分析[J]. 东北林业大学学报, 2005, 33(2): 22-23 |
| 作者姓名： | 陈广胜 葛利 郭仲凯 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 东北林业大学,哈尔滨,150040 2. 哈尔滨商业大学 3. 黑龙江省伊春市营林局 |
| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省自然科学基金;黑龙江省哈尔滨市青年基金 |
| 摘 要： | 采用时间序列分析法，分析了人工林落叶松木材生长轮密度的变异规律，并选择建模方法和模型参数估计，建立了变异规律模型和预测模型，经过残差分析表明：短期预测值与实测值非常吻合；长期预测值与实测值存在差异，但实测值仍在可信区间内。 |
| 关 键 词： | 人工林 落叶松 生长轮密度 时间序列分析 |
Time Series Analysis of the Density of Wood Growth Ring for Larch Plantations |
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| Chen Guangsheng,Ge Li,Guo Zhongkai. Time Series Analysis of the Density of Wood Growth Ring for Larch Plantations[J]. Journal of Northeast Forestry University, 2005, 33(2): 22-23 | |
| Authors: | Chen Guangsheng Ge Li Guo Zhongkai |
| Abstract: | The variation of densities of wood growth ring were analyzed by the analytical m ethod of time series, and the variation model and prediction model were establis hed by means of selecting modeling method and model parameter estimation. The re sult of residual analysis showed that the short-term predicted value was inoscul ated with the measured value, while there was difference between the long-term p redicted value and actual measured value, but the actual measured value was stil l within confidence intervals. |
| Keywords: | Plantation Larch Density of wood growth ring Tim e-series analysis |
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