基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的福州市 土地利用演变与模拟

基于福州市1995年、2005年和2015年3期Landsat影像解译数据以及地形和社会经济统计数据，利用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型探讨该地区土地利用变化及其与各驱动力因子之间的定量关系，并对福州市未来土地利用结构进行模拟预测。结果表明：（1）1995—2015年除建设用地持续增加外，其他4类用地均呈现减少趋势；建设用地的增加主要来源于林地和农地。（2）在Logistic回归分析中，林地转变主要受海拔高度因素影响，农地和水体转变主要受用地距离因素影响，建设用地和未利用土地主要受社会经济因素影响。（3）通过验证Logistic-CA-Markov模型具有较高的模拟精度。结果显示，2025年福州市建设用地和水体增加，林地、农地和未利用土地减少，其中1995—2025年建设用地增长速度最快，而未利用土地减少速度最快。

Land-use change and simulation in Fuzhou based on Logistic-CA-Markov model

Based on remote sensing images of 1995, 2005 and 2015 in Fuzhou city, topography data, and socioeconomic statistics data, the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model was used to explain the change and driving factors of land-use in this area, predict and simulate the future land-use structure of Fuzhou city in the future. The results showed that: (1) Except for the continuous increase of construction land in 1995-2015, the other four kinds of land-use showed a decreasing trend, and the increase of construction land was mainly derived from forestland and farmland. (2) In the Logistic regression analysis, the change of forest land was mainly influenced by elevation. The changes of farmland and water were mainly influenced by the distance. The construction land and the unused land were mainly influenced by the socioeconomic factors. (3) The Logistic-CA-Markov model was validated to high prediction accuracy. In conclusion, in 2025, it is estimated that land for construction and water bodies will increase, while forest land, agricultural land and unused land will decrease. From 1995 to 2025, construction land will increase at the fastest rate, while unused land will decrease at the fastest rate.