基于生态系统服务功能和生态敏感性的生态空间划定研究: 以南宁市为例

探究滇池流域近30年间生态敏感性时空演变特征。

定量分析生态因子的相互关系，基于1995年、2005年、2010年和2018年的遥感影像和基础数据，运用CA-MC模型、重心迁移及核密度进行分析。

1995—2018年，滇池流域土地覆盖/利用、河岸缓冲区和景观指数敏感性均呈波动下降趋势，归一化植被指数敏感性总体升高，流域综合生态敏感性呈现高等级向低等级转化的特征。不敏感、轻度敏感和中度敏感性区域面积整体上升，分别增加2.10%、0.47%和11.20%；高度敏感性区域面积波动下降，减少13.77%。各级生态敏感性重心转移及核密度分布差异显著，不敏感和轻度敏感性区域向西北方向迁移，中度敏感和极度敏感性区域向西南方向迁移，高度敏感性区域向东南方向迁移。通过CA-MC模型推演，2018—2026年滇池流域敏感性空间演变，总体敏感性等级缓慢上升。

研究区域生态敏感性演变过程能够及时了解区域生态演变规律，提出生态保护策略。

Kernel density estimation of traffic accidents in a network space

To explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecological sensitivity in Dianchi Lake Basin during the past 30 years. Quantitative analysis was used for the interrelationships among ecological factors, based on remote sensing images and basic data in 1995, 2005, 2010 and 2018, and CA-MC model, migration of gravity center and kernel density estimation were applied. From 1995 to 2018, the land use and cover change, riparian buffers and landscape indices sensitivities of Dianchi Lake Basin showed a fluctuating decreasing trend, and the normalized difference vegetation index sensitivity increased overall, the comprehensive ecological sensitivity of the basin showed a transformation from high to low level. The area of insensitive, low sensitive and moderate sensitive increased overall, by 2.10%, 0.47% and 11.20%, respectively; the area of high sensitive fluctuated down, decreasing by 13.77%. The center of gravity shifted and kernel density distribution of ecological sensitivity at all levels differed significantly, with the insensitive and low sensitive areas migrated to the northwest, the moderate and extremely sensitive areas migrated to the southwest, and the high sensitive areas migrated to the southeast. The spatial evolution of sensitivity in the Dianchi Lake Basin from 2018 to 2026 is deduced by the CA-MC model, and the overall sensitivity level slowly increases. The study of regional ecological sensitivity evolution can provide timely understanding of regional ecological evolution patterns and propose ecological protection strategies.