基于MaxEnt生态位模型预测当前气候条件下顶羽菊在中国的潜在适生区

顶羽菊Rhaponticum repens (L.) Hidalgo又称匍匐矢车菊, 为我国进境植物检疫性有害生物, 是一种繁殖力、抗逆性强且难以防除的杂草, 可对农作物及牧草等造成危害。本研究基于顶羽菊在全球范围内的地理分布数据, 以及当前条件下影响物种分布的环境因子, 利用MaxEnt生态位模型预测顶羽菊在我国农田和草地区域的潜在分布。结果表明, 影响顶羽菊潜在分布的主要环境变量为最干月份降水量、年平均温度、昼夜温差与年温差比值、最暖季度平均温度、最湿月份降水量、降水量季节性变异系数、最热月最高温度以及最干季度降水量。预测结果表明，顶羽菊在我国36°N-48°N, 75°E-108°E范围高度适生, 包括新疆西部、甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古三省交界处及周边地区;新疆东北部、宁夏南部、甘肃东南部、内蒙古中部、陕西和山西大部分地区、云南、西藏、四川、辽宁、黑龙江少许地区为中适生区。此外，顶羽菊对我国农田潜在危害面积达4.536万km2, 占我国农田总面积的25.34%, 对我国草地潜在危害面积达8.875万km2, 占我国草地总面积的29.05%。综上所述, 建议将我国内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆等地区列为顶羽菊高风险重点监测区, 尽早采取防控措施, 防患于未然。

Prediction of the potential suitable areas of Rhaponticum repens in China based on MaxEnt under current climate conditions

Rhaponticum repens (L.) Hidalgo, also known as Acroptilon repens, is a quarantine pest in China, with strong fertility, stress tolerance, and unmanageable features, threatening to various crops and forage. Based on global geographic distribution data of R.repens alongside environmental factors affecting its distribution under current conditions, the potential distribution of R.repens in farmland and grassland areas in China was predicted using MaxEnt model. The results showed that the main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution included precipitation in the driest month, average annual temperature, the ratio of diurnal temperature range to annual temperature range, average temperature in the warmest quarter, precipitation in the wettest month, seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation, maximum temperature in the hottest month, and precipitation in the driest quarter. It is predicted that the highly suitable habitat for R.repens is in the range of 36°N to 48°N and 75°E to 108°E in China, mainly including western Xinjiang, border and surrounding areas of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia. And the moderately suitable habitat was located in the northeast of Xinjiang, the south of Ningxia, the southeast of Gansu, the middle of Inner Mongolia, most parts of Shaanxi and Shanxi, Yunnan, Xizang, Sichuan, Liaoning, and some areas of Heilongjiang. In addition, the potential damage area to farmland is estimated at 45.36×103 km2, accounting for 25.34% of the total farmland area, while the potential damage area to grassland spans 88.75×103 km2, accounting for 29.05% of the total grassland area. In summary, we recommend that Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, and other susceptible regions in China should be listed as high-risk key monitoring areas for R. repens, and prevention and control measures should be taken as soon as possible to nip the issues in the bud.