2012年国内外食糖市场回顾与2013年展望

2012年国内生产食糖1178．8万t，销售1172．36万t。2012年起，由于市场普遍预期食糖将实现增产，糖价从7500元／t上方一路下跌到6500元／t下方。为稳定国内食糖价格，保护糖农和企业的利益，商务部2012年已先后分3批共收储180万t国家储备糖。但相对廉价的进口食糖也大量涌入国内市场，2012年进口食糖375万t，使得国内食糖市场供给出现过剩，糖价继续下行到5500元／t下方，糖厂利润严重缩水。展望2013年，预计巴西、俄罗斯及澳大利亚产量强劲，而印度、泰国和欧洲食糖产量可能会下降，全球食糖市场很可能会继续供给过剩，预计2013年国际糖价将缺乏有力的上涨动能。2012年全国糖料播种面积同比大幅增长，预计2012／13榨季国内食糖将继续增产，虽然国家有较大规模的收储计划，但预计将不足以改变国内食糖市场的弱势格局，国内糖价仍将承压，2013年国内食糖价格将低位震荡运行的可能较大。

Review of Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2012 and Its Prospect in 2013

The domestic production of sugar was 11. 788 million tons and the sale was 11. 723 6 million tons in 2012, since when the sugar price has fallen down from more than 7 500 RMB per ton to less than 6 500 RMB per ton because of generally increasing expectations on market sugar production. The Ministry of Commerce has successively purchased 1.8 million tons of sugar for storage in three times in order to stabilize the domestic price of sugar and protect the interests of sugar farmers and enterprises. However, since foreign sugar price was much cheaper than domestic, China imported 3.75 million tons of sugar in 2012, which made sugar market oversupply and sugar price down to lower part of 5 500 RMB per ton, the profits of sugar mills also took a big hit from the oversupply. Looking forward to 2013, Brazil, Russia and Australia are expected to have high production, while the sugar production in India, Thailand and European may decline, we may continue facing the global excess supply of sugar, so the international sugar prices may be difficult to rise. In 2012, the planting acreage of sugar crops increased substantially compared to last year, based on this, we expect the domestic sugar production will keep growing in 2012/13 crushing season, although there is an extensive collection and storage plan, it may still be difficult to reverse the adverse situation of domestic sugar market, under the pressure, the domestic sugar price in 2013 is likely to run at a relativelv low and volatile_