中国海洋产业结构的系统分析与海洋渔业的可持续发展

2005年中国海洋产业总产值已达全国GDP的9.3%，海洋产业增加值已达全国GDP的4.0%。此文应用灰色关联分析剖析了2001—2005年间中国海洋产业结构中的主导产业，其顺序为旅游业、渔业、交通运输业等；应用主成分分析揭示了2004年沿海诸省海洋经济综合实力在全国的地位，前3名是：上海、天津、广东；应用区位熵分析确定了2004年沿海诸省的优势海洋产业，如：上海的优势产业有：交通运输业、旅游业、船舶业。根据上述分析，中国海洋渔业的发展趋势是：2005—2020年间近海鱼类捕获量继续保持零增长，海水养殖量年均增长3.7%，远洋捕捞量年均增长6.4%。

The Systematic Analysis of Marine Industrial Structure and the SustainableDevelopment of Sea Fisheries in China

The ratio between the value of marine industry and GDP was 9.3% for the gross output value,and was 4.0% for the added value in China in 2005.In this paper the gray correlation analysis was used for dissecting the dominant industries in marine industrial structure of the country in 2001-2005,which were coastal tourism,fishery,transportation and so on.The principal component analysis was applied for evaluating the positions of marine economic comprehensive strength of coastal provinces in the country,in which Shanghai,Tianjin,Guangdong located the first,the second and the third positions respectively in 2004.The regional position entropy analysis was used for determining the superior marine industries of coastal provinces,for example,the superior marine industries of Shanghai were transportation,coastal tourism and shipbuilding industry in 2004.On the basis of above-mentioned analyses the development tendencies of sea fisheries in China were looked forward to,in which the annual increasing rate will be zero for offshore fish catches,will be 3.7 percent for mariculture production,and will be 6.4 percent for oceangoing catches in 2005-2020.