气象条件对稻纵卷叶螟迁飞的影响分析

通过对桂林地区近5年水稻稻纵卷叶螟发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析，选择影响桂林地区稻纵卷叶螟迁飞的气象因子（温度、降水、风向、风速、湿度），考虑前期气象条件和虫源数，采用回归分析方法，建立水稻稻纵卷叶螟迁飞的气象条件等级预报业务系统。系统分长期和中期预报，将各因子和预报对象都划分为5级，用当地气象台发布的月、季度、及一周天气预报结论，综合分析前期虫源数是否有利，对未来月、季和未来1～7天逐日影响稻纵卷叶螟迁飞的气象条件等级进行预报。预报业务系统实用性强，逐日预报准确率达到了70%以上，在生产实践中发挥了积极的作用。

Analysis On Meteorological Conditions Effecting On Migration Of The Rice Leaf Roller

Rice leaf roller migration is main effected by meteorological condition.By analysis on the data,we had more clear understanding for meteorological elements affecting migration for rice leaf roller in Guilin;The main affecting factor for rice leaf roller was upper air flows,temperature,precipitation and humidity.By comparative analysis on meteorological conditions and occurrences of rice leaf roller in Guilin region;Airflow in 925 hPa to 850 hPa was the leading airflow that decided rice leaf roller moving direction and velocity..Temperature was the main factor for rice leaf roller lifted.The temperature suitable for rice leaf roller to migrating was between 19-28℃.Precipitation and sink airflow decided the injurious fall site.The probability of precipitation at the same day and last day of peek stage was large than 85.8%.The rice leaf roller prefered moist atmosphere,but disliked powerful sunshine.The suitable air humidity was above 70%.