2003-2016年中国华北地区森林火灾时空特征研究

进行森林火灾时空特征分析,有利于为预防森林火灾提供科学依据和理论基础。根据林业年鉴数据,对中国华北地区2003-2016年森林火灾的时空分布特征进行研究,在分析中着重考虑群死群伤火灾(HCF)。结果表明:1)我国华北地区森林火灾主要集中于内蒙古自治区与河北省,HCF起数多集中于内蒙古自治区与山西省;2)时空特征方面,火灾起数最高的是内蒙古自治区,其次是河北省和山西省;2003-2011虽年均火灾次数和火场面积较高,但整体呈现下降趋势,2011年后下降趋势更为明显;3)进行聚类分析,按照严重程度由高到低分为3类,其中内蒙古自治区火灾对环境的影响最为明显,一般火灾以及HCF起数较多。华北地区森林火灾与气候变化、人类活动息息相关,具有明显的区域性特征,应加强火源管理及预测工作。

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Forest Fires in Northern China from 2003 to 2016

The analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of forest fires can provide scientific and theoretical basis for preventing forest fires.Based on the data of forestry yearbook,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of forest fires occurred in Northern China from 2003 to 2016 were studied with the emphasis of considering the high-casualty fires (HCFs).The results showed that 1) forest fires in Northern China were mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Hebei,and the HCFs was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi.2) In terms of the temporal and spatial characteristics,the highest number of forest fires was in Inner Mongolia,followed by Hebei and Shanxi.Although the average annual forest fire number and fire area were higher in 2003-2011,it showed a decline trend in overall,and the decline trend was more obvious after 2011.3) In cluster analysis,according to the fire severity,three categories from high to low were obtained,among which,the forest fires in Inner Mongolia had the most obvious impacts on the environment,and the general fires and HCFs were more frequent.Forest fires in Northern China were closely related to climate changes and human activities and had obvious regional characteristics,therefore fire source management and prediction should be strengthened.