中国畜禽粪便产生量的变动特征及未来发展展望简

随着中国畜禽养殖业的快速发展，畜禽粪便的产生量也在迅速增加，畜禽粪便处理已经严重影响畜禽产业的可持续发展。因而，分析畜禽粪便产生量变动规律和未来发展．成为实现畜禽养殖业发展与生态环境保护协调发展的基础性问题。研究表明，中国畜禽粪便产生量1980年超过了14亿t，2011年达21．21亿t，并将随着畜禽养殖量的增加而迅速增加，到2020年和2030年将分别达到28．75亿t和37．43亿t，且肉牛等畜禽品种的养殖量将会逐步超过役用及其他畜禽，并成为畜禽粪便最主要的来源。此外，地区间畜禽粪便产生量差异较大，而且畜禽粪便产生量居前5位的地区都已超过畜禽粪便单位面积最佳负荷量。

Changes and Outlook about Production Amount of Livestock and Poultry Manure in China

With the rapid development of livestock and poultry farming, production amount of animal manure is also fast multiplying. Measure treatment of animal manure has seriously affected the sustainable development of livestock and poultry industry, so analysis of changes characterristics and future development of livestock and poultry manure production has become the basic problems of livestock industry development and ecological environmental protection coordination development. This study showed that production amount of animal manure exceeded 1.4 billion tons in 1980, and reached 2.121 billion tons in 2011, and increased rapidly with the increase of livestock amount. According to the forecast, production amount of animal manure in China will respectively attain 2.875 billion tons in 2020 and 3.743 billion tons in 2030, and animal manure comes from some special livestock and poultry such as beef cattle will be the most important source of animal manure, because animals breeds like beef cattle will be more than working animal and other livestock and poultry in the long term. Besides, regional production amount livestock and poultry manure had great differences, and the top five areas have exceeded the manure optimum load per unit area.