政府农业巨灾风险分摊比例研究——以河南小麦保险为例

农业巨灾风险管理是农业保险体系健康发展的重要前提和必要保障。中国农业保险的开展以省为单位,省级政府是巨灾风险分散机制的主体,在制定巨灾风险分散政策时,需考虑承担多少风险合适这一很直接的问题。如果政府分摊风险过多,会给财政带来沉重负担,同时"挤占"保险公司的风险转移职能;如果政府分摊风险过少,则不能起到巨灾风险转移和分散的目的。以河南省小麦保险为例,从政府角度出发,利用县级小麦生产的历史数据,量化分析省内小麦生产风险,设计农业巨灾风险最优分摊计量模型,测算省级政府与保险公司的巨灾风险最优分摊比例。

Agricultural Catastrophic Risk Sharing Ratio Analysis from Government Perspective --Take Wheat Insurance in Henan Province for Example

Catastrophic risk management system is an important prerequisite and guarantee for the healthy development of agricultural insurance. Claina＇s agricultural insurance is carried out at provincial level. The provincial governments play a major role in agricultural catastrophic risk diversification. When the provincial governments make policy in terms of agricultural catastrophic risk diversification, a direct question needs to be considered： how much risk that the government should undertake？ If the governments bear excessive risk, it will bring them a heavy financial burden, and ＂crowd out＂ the insurance companies＇ due responsibility of risk diversification. If the governments share insufficient risk, the objective of the catastrophic risk diversification cannot be achieved. This paper takes wheat insurance in Henan province as an example and explores the optimal risk sharing ratio of catastrophic risk between the provincial government and insurance company from the government＇s perspective, using a catastrophic risk sharing econometric model based on yield risk estimation with historical data.