辽西半干旱地区农业需水满足程度分析

[目的]对自然降水农业需水满足度分析，给农业结构调整、趋利避害夺丰收提供气候依据。[方法]应用积分湿度指标和气候倾向率研究农作物需水满足度及其趋势变化。[结果]辽西各地衣作物生长季降水量呈下降减少趋势，气候倾向率一8．660～-18．560mm／10a，近50年趋势减少降水量43～93mm。自然降水农业需水满足度平均为72％-88％，满足度在80％以上的占30％～60％，缺水概率为68％～90％。朝阳、凌源、北票、降水满足程度最低，南部的建昌、北部的建平相对较高。总体农业需水满足度随时间变化呈下降趋势，气候倾向率为-2．490～-3．863％／10a，50年趋势下降12％～19％。随着降水量的减少，农作物需水满足度的降低，辽西地区有向干旱化方向发展的趋势。

Analysis on Satisfaction Degree of Agricultural Water Demand in Liaoxi Semiarid Region

[Objective]The aim was to analyze the satisfaction degree of agricultural water demand and provide climate basis for adjustment of agriculture structure. [Method]The integral humidity indicators and climate tendency were used to analyze the crop water demand satisfaction degree and trend variation. [Result]The precipitation in crop growing season in each place of Liaoxi showed a decreasing trend,the climate tendency rate was among -8.660--18.560 mm/10a,the precipitation reducing 43-93 mm in recent 50 years. The satisfaction degree of rainfall agriculture water demand was among 72%-88%,the satisfaction degree above 80% accounted for 30%-60%,the shortage probability was 68%-90%. The rainfall satisfaction degree of Chaoyang,Lingyuan,Beipiao were lowest,Jianchang,Jiangping were relative higher. The gross agriculture water demand satisfaction degree showed decreasing trend with time variation,the climate tendency rate was -2.490--3.863%/10a,reducing 12%-19%. With the decreasing of precipitation,the crop water demand satisfaction degree reduced,Liaoxi has the development trend toward aridization direction.