基于粮食安全的云南省2020年耕地需求量预测

依据1996～2008年耕地面积与粮食产量数据,采用基于粮食安全的耕地需求量预测方法,选取耕地面积、粮播比例、耕地年粮食单产、总人口和人均粮食产量5个指标,分析预测了2020年云南省耕地需求量。各指标预测结果表明,2020年云南省总人口达5146.40万人,显著高于控制数（5000万人）;2020年云南省人均粮食需求量为400kg,处于小康型下限;粮食自给率按100%、95%和90%3个方案进行;耕地年粮食单产的年均增长率按2.5%和3.0%2个方案进行预测;将2020年粮播比例确定为66%。耕地需求量预测结果表明,通过分析得到云南省耕地需求量共计6个方案,方案Ⅰ是很难达到的目标,方案Ⅳ、方案Ⅴ和方案Ⅵ的预测结果偏低,不符合国家保护耕地的政策规定,也不利于保障粮食安全目标;方案Ⅱ和方案Ⅲ较为接近,但方案Ⅲ预测结果最佳,并将基于粮食安全的云南省2020年耕地需求量确定为590万hm2,以保障云南省粮食安全、实现省域粮食基本自给的耕地＂红线＂。

Prediction on the Farmland Demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 Based on Food Security

According to the cultivated area and grain yield during 1996-2008 and adopting the prediction method of farmland demand based on food security,five indexes,including the cultivated area,grain sown rate,yearly food yield per unit area,total population and per capita grain yield,are selected to analyze and predict the farmland demand in Yunnan Province in 2020.As the prediction results of each index show,the total population of Yunnan Province in 2020 will reach 51 464 000,significantly higher than the upper bound(50 million);the per capita food demand of Yunnan Province in 2020 will be 400 kg below the bottom line of the well-off type;food self-sufficient ratio will be respectively given the value of 100%,95% and 90% in three schemes;the prediction will be conducted with the yearly food yield per unit area at an average annual growth rate of 2.5% and 3.0% in two schemes;the rate of grain sowing in 2020 is determined to be 66%.As the prediction results of farmland demand show,there are totally 6 schemes about farmland demand in Yunnan Province obtained through analysis,among them,schemeⅠis difficult to achieve,the prediction results of scheme Ⅳ,Ⅴ and Ⅵ are relatively low,which do not conform to the state policies and regulations to protect farmland and are also not conductive for ensuring the food security;schemeⅡ and Ⅲ are close to each other,but scheme Ⅲ obtains better prediction results and determines the farmland demand of Yunnan province in 2020 based on food security to be 5.9 million so as to ensure the provincial food security and realize the "red line" of basic provincial food self-sufficiency.