黑龙江省主要粮食作物总产预报系统构建方法的探讨

黑龙江省主要粮食作物总产预报系统将利用"3S"技术手段、结合地面调查和高分辨率卫星数据,进行四大粮食作物(大豆、玉米、水稻、春小麦)种植面积的提取,从而实现黑龙江当年主要粮食作物种植面积的本底调查。第2年以后每年间,利用分层抽样理论,结合地面样方的实地测量,同时利用积温带对四大粮食作物种植区域进行划分,从而最终实现黑龙江省主要粮食作物的总产预报系统。为黑龙江省建立现代农业空间统计技术体系和粮食安全与区域生态保障空间的决策支持系统提供方法,同时也为黑龙江省农业空间统计技术和宏观农业科学决策的现代化进程提供示范。

Constructing Methods of the Predicting System of Yield of Chief Grain Crop in Heilongjiang Province

The system, combining ground survey and high resolution satellite data by the technical means of ＂3S＂, extracts four grain crops （ soybean, maize, rice, spring wheat） planting area, thus realizes background investigation of Heilongjiang chief grain planting area current-year. After the second year, every year applying stratified sampling theory, and combining the survey of ground samples. Meanwhile, plotting out the area of four crop depending on variable zone it＇s will be carry out the predicting system of Heilongjiang chief grain. This subject will provide study methods for the system of modern agricultural spatial statistics technologygrain security and regional ecological protect space. At the same time, provide the demonstration for the modernization process of Heilongjiang agricultural spatial statistics technology and macro agricultural science in decisionmaking.