乌鲁木齐市自然资源·经济·生态环境系统耦合协调度研究

为了研究乌鲁木齐市自然资源、经济、生态环境子系统之间的耦合协调类型及它们未来的耦合协调度变化，借鉴物理学中的耦合概念，构建了乌鲁木齐市自然资源·经济·生态环境系统耦合协调度指标体系，并根据乌鲁木齐市2001—2013年的相关统计数据，利用耦合协调度数学模型和计算方法，对三者在研究期内整体的耦合协调度演变进行了定量的分析。利用GM(1, 1)预测模型，对研究区未来3年的耦合协调度发展趋势进行了模拟预测。结果表明：2001—2013年间，乌鲁木齐市整体的耦合协调度呈现缓慢上升趋势，其值介于0.279~0.502之间，从2001年的0.279增加到2013年的0.477，但2013年比2012年减少了0.025，从勉强协调变成了濒临失调；预测结果表明：未来3年，乌市自然资源·经济·生态环境系统耦合协调度有所好转，耦合协调度分别是0.476、0.495、0.516，逐渐从濒临失调转换成勉强协调。

Coupling Coordinative Degree of Natural Resources-Economy-Ecological Environment System in Urumqi City

To study the coupling coordination type of natural resources, economy and ecological environment subsystems and the changing trend of their coupling coordination degree in the future in Urumqi City, with the help of coupling function in physics, a coupling coordination degree index system about natural resources-economy-ecological environment system was built. Quantitative analysis of coupling relationship among the three subsystems was conducted using the coupled coordination degree mathematical model and related calculation method based on the relative statistic data of Urumqi City from 2001 to 2013. Then GM (1, 1) prediction model was used to predict coordinated development trend of the next three years. The results showed that the overall degree of coupling coordination presented an upward trend in Urumqi City from 2001 to 2013, and its value was 0.279-0.502, increased from 0.279 in 2001 to 0.477 in 2013, but its value in 2013 decreased by 0.025 compared with that of 2012, transforming from barely coordination to the verge of disorder. Prediction results showed that in the next three years, coupling coordination degree of natural resources-economy-ecological environment system would be improved obviously, and the coupling coordination degree was 0.476, 0.495 and 0.516, respectively, and the coordination type would transform from disorder into barely coordination gradually.