考虑预估驾驶行为的跟驰模型及其稳定性分析

在OV模型的基础上，进一步考虑预估驾驶行为对车流的影响，提出一个新的跟驰模型以获得预估驾驶行为与交通拥堵的关系。通过对新模型进行稳定性分析得到了系统的临界稳定条件。数值仿真结果表明：新模型能够模拟诸如时停时走、系统临界相变等实际交通现象，较OV模型更贴近于实际。同时，预估驾驶行为增强了交通流稳定性能，提高了车流陷入交通阻塞状态的阈值。最后以车速的平滑度和波动幅度最小为评价指标得到了新模型中预估参数的最优取值范围。

A new car-following model with consideration of anticipation drivingbehavior and its stability analysis

Based on the OV model, a new microscopic anticipation driving car-following model was proposed to study the relationship between anticipation driving behavior and traffic congestion. The stability criterion was derived by using stability theory. The simulation results show that the new model can simulate practical traffic phenomena, such as stop-and-go, system critical phrase transition, etc., and its simulation results are more close to practical value than that of the OV model under the open boundary conditions. At the same time, the anticipation driving effect can enhance the stability performance of traffic flow, improve the threshold of density which the state of traffic flow will turn into congestion state and reduce the effect scope of congestion, finally the optimal value range of anticipation parameter in the new model is obtained under the open boundary conditions when viewing the minimum smoothness and minimum fluctuation amplitude of speed as the evaluation index.