Palmer旱度模式在渭北旱塬泾惠渠灌区的应用研究

依据泾惠渠灌区的水文气象历史资料,应用待定系数和回归方法,建立了适用于泾惠渠灌区的Palmer旱度模式.将该旱度模式应用于灌区干旱系列特征分析,分析结果给出不同干旱程度可能发生的频率及年内分布,验证了灌区有较明显的旱化倾向及冬灌期和春灌期大旱的出现机率较大等特征,这些均与灌区多年来的实际干旱情况相符,表明了所建立的Palmer旱度模式合理,具有较明确的物理意义且能够反映灌区的干旱特征.

Research on application of Palmer drought model in Jinghuiqu irrigation area

Based on long series of hydrology and meteorology data of Jinghuiqu irrigation district at the dry area of north bank of the Weihe River, Palmer drought model suitable for the area was developed by undetermined coefficient method and regression method . Then the drought model was applied for drought characteristic analysis of Jinghuiqu irriga-tion district, and the frequency of different degree of drought and its distribution in a year was given, and some valuable conclusion was drawn. For example, a severe drought could be arise in winter imigation period and spring irigation period, and the drought trend of the irrigation area was also proved . All these results are coincident with actual drought situa-tion of the imigation area for many past years . Therefore, the Palmer drought model developed for the irrigation area was correct, with a definite physical meaning and can reflect the drought characteristics of the area.