基于县域尺度的京津冀地区粮食产需时空格局及安全研究

应用GIS技术和空间自相关分析方法,对京津冀地区1990—2010年粮食产需的时空格局变化进行研究,构建粮食安全指数,识别京津冀粮食安全区域及其变化。结果表明:1990年以来,京津冀地区粮食生产经历了上升期、快速下降期、恢复增长期3个变化阶段,粮食低产县逐年减少,中产县基本保持稳定,高产县则呈上升趋势;粮食产需存在明显空间聚集现象,南部平原成为粮食生产及产需差热点,而北部则为低值聚集区;在安全区域识别方面,大部分县属于生产安全-消费安全类型,较少县属于生产安全-消费不安全类型,生产不安全-消费不安全的类型最少;对区域安全变化进行分类,安全-安全类型的县主要分布在南部平原地区,不安全-不安全类则主要为直辖市市区、地级市市区以及北部高原、山地区。京津冀作为一体化协同发展地区,地区间优势互补,对整个区域的粮食安全具有重要意义。

Spatial-temporal pattern changes and security of grain production and demand at county level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

GIS technique and spatial autocorrelation tools are used to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern of the grain production and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1990 to 2010.Grain security index is built to identify grain security areas and investigate its changes.The results show that:1) The grain production in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has experienced the following 3 phases of change since 1990,rising phase from 1990 to 1998,rapidly declining phase from 1999 to 2003 and re-increasing phase from 2003 to 2010;2) The counties with low grain yield reduce by year and those with medium grain yield remain stable.On the contrary,counties with high grain yield keep growing,which are mainly in the north part of the region;3) The result of grain production and demand analysis indicates the existence of spatial aggregation.While the southern plain becomes the hot spot of grain production and production-demand difference area where the grain production can fully satisfy its demand,the northern part is the cold spot in which the relationship between grain production and demand is quite tight.4) Most counties in the study area belong to safe in production and safe in demand category,followed by the category of safe in production-unsafe in demand.The unsafe in production and unsafe in demand category accounts for the least number of counties.Moreover,the classification of the changes in regional security shows that the majority of safe safe-safe counties locate in southern plain area,while the unsafe-unsafe counties are mainly distributed in the urban area of municipality and prefecture-level cities,the northern plateau,and mountain regions.In conclusion,in the view of cooperative development,complementary advantages of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have important practical significance for the grain security of the whole area.