福建省极端温度事件对气候变暖的响应

为探究福建省极端温度事件的变化特征及其未来发展趋势,利用1960—2013年福建省17个气象台站的日平均气温、日最高气温及最低气温等资料,采用趋势分析法、反距离空间插值法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析、Pearson相关分析以及Hurst指数等方法,分析了福建省1960—2013年极端温度事件的时空演变规律及其未来发展趋势。结果表明:1)近54年福建省极端高温(低温)事件发生日数呈上升(下降)趋势,而极端温度事件的强度和年极值均呈上升趋势。2)在空间分布上,极端高温(低温)事件各指标值均表现为自东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐递增(递减)的规律,此外,海拔越高极端温度事件各指标值越小。3)年极端温度事件和年平均气温有很好的相关性,其中与极端温度事件发生日数的相关性最高。4)Hurst指数表明,未来极端高温日数、强度、年最高温度、年极端低温强度和年最低温度仍呈增加趋势,而极端低温日数呈现减少趋势,暖冬的趋势将逐渐明显。

The responseof extreme temperature events to climate warming in Fujian Province

Based on the daily maximum temperature and average temperature data of the 17 stations in Fujian Province during 1960 to 2013,using the trend analysis,IDW spatial interpolation technology,Mann-kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,Pearson correlation analysis and Hurst exponent,The temporal and spatial evolution law and its development trend in the future of extreme temperature events in Fujian Province were analyzed.The results showed that:1) In recent 54 years,the days of annual extreme high-temperature increased while the days of annual extreme low-temperature decreased.The intensity of extreme temperature events and annual temperature extremes displayed increasing trend;2) The spatial distribution of various indexes of extreme high-temperature event was from the southeast coast to the Inland Northwest gradually increasing,while the extreme low-temperature were decreased.In addition,with the increase of altitude each index value of extreme high-temperature event decreased;3) There was a high correlation between extreme temperature events and annual average temperature,and the correlation with days of extreme temperature events stayed the highest;4) The Hurst index indicated that the future of extreme high-temperature days,strength,and annual maximum temperature,extreme low-temperature strength and annual minimum temperature are going to be increased,while the extreme low-temperature days showed a downward trend,the trend of warmer winters is growing clear.