不同积温计算方法作物发育期模拟效果比较

为探究不同积温计算方法对作物发育期模拟效果的影响情况,以北京密云冬小麦1989—2011年返青-拔节、拔节-抽穗和抽穗-成熟期为例,统计了基于3种线性假设的京冬8号和不区分品种的冬小麦活动积温及有效积温,对比分析了6种积温(GDD)模型和发育时间(DD)模型统计变量的变异系数(CV)及模拟偏差(SD),结果表明:GDD模型对阶段积温模拟的稳定性较DD模型对发育日数的模拟效果更佳;区分品种的变量稳定性相对不分品种的稳定性更大且模拟效果更好;对比模型有效率(ME)、均方根误差(RMSE)及标准化均方根误差(NRMSE)得出结论:6种GDD模型相对DD模型对发育期的模拟效果均达到优秀;分品种的模拟效果较不分品种的模拟更优;同一线性假设中,活动积温比有效积温模拟效果更好;3种生长假设间,线性假设B对发育期模拟效果优于A和C。

Comparison of the simulation effect of different growing degree-days calculating methods on crop development processes

To explore the impact of methods of calculating growing degree-day on simulation effect of crop development processes,the data from 1989 to 2011 of the 3 developmental phases of Miyun winter wheat including reviving-jointing,jointing-heading and heading-maturity,were analyzed.The active and effective growing degree-days (GDD) were calculated by adapting six calculating methods based on three linear (Linear A, B and C) growth assumptions on single cultivar Jingdong 8 or all cultivars.The stability of coefficient of variation (CV) and simulation deviation (SD) of development days (DD) model and GDD models were analyzed.Results showed that:Simulation effects of GDD models for different developmental phases were excellent compared with DD model;Simulation effect of single cultivar was better than that of all cultivars;The model efficiency (ME),Root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Normalized RMSE (NRMSE) of DD model and GDD models were compared.Results showed that:Simulation effects of 6 GDD models are all excellent compared with DD model; Simulation effect of single cultivar was better than that of all cultivars;Simulation effect of active GDD was better than that of effective GDD for same linear growth assumptions;Simulation effect of developmental process was significantly improved by linear B than that of linear A and C among three linear growth assumptions.