非参数核密度法厘定玉米区域产量保险费率研究——以河北安国市为例

本研究以非参数核密度法为核心,构建了农作物GRP保险费率厘定的方法体系,以此对河北省安国市1980—2004年的玉米产量风险损失进行估算和纯保险费率进行厘定,得出在80%的保障水平下,纯保险费率为3.4%;在70%的保障水平下,纯保险费率为2.9%。这一结果比较接近该区域传统的风险评估方法所得结果。该方法的运用旨在为区域农业保险费率的厘定提供了一种新的可供选择的方法途径。

Maize GRP rate of premium deciding by nonprarametric kernel density:——A case study on Anguo city, Hebei province

We used non-prarametric kernel density technique as a core in developing an evaluation system for determining the GRP rate of premium based on our analysis of maize production in Anguo city, Hebei province during 1980- 2004. The study shows that at 80% guarantee level, the pure rate of premium was 3.4% ; and at 70% guarantee level, the pure rate of premium was 2.9%. These results were almost the same as those evaluated by the conventional method, which proves the feasibility of using non-prarametric kernel density technique for risk evaluation, and provides a new practical way to determine crop GRP rate of premium. The result can serve as a guide to China agricultural insurance tests, and agricultural insurance subsidy policy.