模糊综合决策模型预报农业害虫的研究

模糊综合决策模型分M_A和M_B两大类。由列联系数(c_i),等级相关系数(d_i)和最大频数(∫_i)构成模糊向量X;条件概率(P),模糊条件概率(FP)和列联比(O)构成模糊矩阵R,交叉合成9种预测方法。用模糊综合评判数学模型Y=X·R,进行945年次运算,结果表明,平均历史符合率第一大类M_A为93.7％,第二大类M_B为92.6％,误差S_(M_A)

FORECASTING AGRICULTURAL PESTS BY FUZZY SYNTHETIC DETERMINATIVE MODEL

The authors divided the Fuzzy synthetic determinative model into two large sorts, i. e. M_A and M_B. The Fuzzy vectors X were composed of contingency coefficient (c_i) , grade relation coefficient (d_i) and the biggest frequency (f_i). The Fuzzy matrixes R were constituted of condition probability (P), Fuzzy condition probability(FP) and contingency rate(0).Nine kinds of the forecasting method were alternatively made up of the Fuzzy vectors and matrixes. Operations of 945 year-times were made by the mathematical formula of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Y=X (?) R. As a result, the average of the historical coincidence of the first large sort M_A was 93. 7% , and that of the second large sort M_B was 92. 6%, error: S_(M_A) S_(M_B). It is proved that M_A is superior to the M_B