中国非CO2类温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵

利用改进后的全球一般均衡环境模型（GTAP-E）及其6版非CO2类温室气体排放数据库，模拟了中国非CO2类温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵。结果显示，现阶段，中国是世界上非CO2类温室气体排放最多的国家，2020年将会占到世界总排放的20%左右。其中，来自农业部门的非CO2类温室气体排放比重达到73%。未来10年，牛羊类、工业、服务行业的非CO2排放增速最快，且服务业的增速快于工业，并在2010年后超过工业排放。中国可以通过实施非CO2类温室气体减排政策，减轻二氧化碳减排的国际压力。虽然征收较高的碳税能够带来较高的非二氧化碳减排量，但是政策效率在高碳税和低碳税间差异不大。所以，在实施非二氧化碳减排碳税政策时，应该把碳税控制在一个较低的水平。

Potential and Policy Implications of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in China

The improved GTAP-E model and the 6th version of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions database is used to simulate the emission reduction potential and policy implications of Chinese non CO2 greenhouse gas. The results showed that China will become the country that has the maximum emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gas in the world in 2020, and will account for about 20% of the total emissions in the world. 73% of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions come from agricultural sector. The next 10 years, cattle and sheep sector, industry and service sectors will have the fastest increasing speed of the non-CO2 green house gas emission, and the increasing speed of service sector grow faster than that of industry sector and will surpass industrial emissions in 2010. China could implement non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions policy to reduce the international pressure of CO2 reduction. Although higher carbon tax levy will bring higher non-CO2 emission reduction, the efficiencies of the policies between low carbon tax and high carbon tax have little difference. Therefore, when the policy of non-CO2 emission reduction is implemented, it should be controlled at a reasonable level.