种群数量动态时序建模方法的研究

用时序分析的方法研究种群数量动态数学建模，用参数方法处理种群动态数据中的非平衡时间序列。对主值函数项的残差进行的噪声检验，并用ＡＲＭＡ模型对其进行拟合。结果表明；种群数量动态非平稳时序模型残差通过白噪声检验，对实验数据的拟合程度优于确定性模型，预测预报较佳，理论上更加合理可信。

studies on Method of Using Time Series Analysis to Build the Model of the Quantity Dynamics of Population

The methed using time series analysis to build the model of the quantity dynamics ofpopulation were studied in this papor.The non-stationary time series within the dynamic data ofpopulation were treated by parameter method.The white-noise test and the fitting using ARMAmodel were made for the residuals.The results showed that the medel builded by the methodprovided in this paper was better than that builded by other methed,The method was morerational and believable in theoretical.