| 基于GAHP的小麦白粉病流行动态预测方法研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘萍,张友华,丁克坚,吴云志,刘家成,王庆人. 基于GAHP的小麦白粉病流行动态预测方法研究[J]. 安徽农业大学学报, 2014, 41(3): 501 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘萍 张友华 丁克坚 吴云志 刘家成 王庆人 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 安徽农业大学信息与计算机学院,合肥230036;安徽农业大学植物保护学院,合肥230036;安徽省农业委员会,合肥230031 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201203016);安徽省科技攻关项目(12010302079)共同资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对目前小麦白粉病流行动态研究中存在的影响因子单一、预测结果有误报等问题,提出一种基于GAHP的小麦白粉病流行动态预测方法。该方法引入影响白粉病发生的多源因素,采用AHP算法定性分析影响因子和预测方案并定量计算出权重大小,同时聚类分析群组中各专家权重值,最后加权求和得出白粉病的流行动态。通过对2012年淮北地区小麦白粉病流行动态进行实例验证,对比发布的预测结果,结果准确,证明该方法的可行性和有效性较好。
|
| 关 键 词： | 小麦白粉病 GAHP 聚类分析 流行动态 病虫害预警 |
Forecasting method for prevailing trend of wheat powdery mildew based on GAHP |
| |
| LIU Ping,ZHANG Youhu,DING Kejian,WU Yunzhi,LIU Jiacheng and WANG Qingren. Forecasting method for prevailing trend of wheat powdery mildew based on GAHP[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural University, 2014, 41(3): 501 |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Ping ZHANG Youhu DING Kejian WU Yunzhi LIU Jiacheng WANG Qingren |
| |
| Affiliation: | School of Information and Computer, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036,School of Information and Computer, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036,School of Plant Protection, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036,School of Information and Computer, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036,Agriculture Committee in Anhui Province, Hefei 230031 and School of Information and Computer, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036 |
| |
| Abstract: | Aiming at the existing problems in the forecast of the prevailing trend of wheat powdery mildew, this paper proposed a forecasting method for wheat powdery mildew prevailing trend based on group analytic hierarchy process (GAHP) to deal with effects of single factor and false on the predicted results. The method introduced multi-source factors which affect the occurrence of powdery mildew, using AHP algorithm to qualitatively analyze the impact factor and prediction scheme for calculating the weight, meanwhile, cluster analysis method was used to calculate the weight of experts. Ultimately, the prevailing trend of powdery mildew was predicted through the weighted sum of the two analysis results obtained. Compared with the predicted results released at Huaibei region Anhui in 2012, this method is feasible and effective. |
| |
| Keywords: | wheat powdery mildew GAHP cluster analysis prevailing trend pest forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《安徽农业大学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《安徽农业大学学报》下载全文 |
|
