Dynamic prediction of forest fuel loads by Grey Verhulst model |
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Authors: | He Zhongqiu Chai Ruihai Sang Weiguo Li Chunying Zhang Chenggang |
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Institution: | (1) Forest Management Institute of Heilongjiang Province, 150040 Harbin, P. R. of China;(2) Northeast Forest University, China;(3) Forest Management Institute in Heilongjiang Province, China |
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Abstract: | The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types,phododendron--Larix gmelinii forest,herb--Larix gmelinii forest andherb--Betula platyphlla forest, in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory
for estimating the fuels loads of arbor, shrub, herbs, grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflammable fuel and the
total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammable fuel loads inphododendron-Lxirix gmelinii forest and in the herb- -Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2 and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively, by 13 years later, and that was 12.297 t/hm2 inherb--Larix gmelinii forest by 7 years later. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated. |
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Keywords: | Fuel loads Forest type Grey verhulst model Dynamic prediction |
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