| 组合预测模型在农业经济研究中的应用——以吉林省粮食产量为例 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张红芹,王波,高来斌.组合预测模型在农业经济研究中的应用——以吉林省粮食产量为例[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(22). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张红芹 王波 高来斌 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 吉林农业大学信息技术学院,吉林长春,130118
2. 吉林农业大学信息技术学院,吉林长春,130118;吉林大学商学院,吉林长春,130021 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据最优加权理论来确定权重,将时间序列模型、指数平滑模型和GM(1,1)预测模型加以组合,利用吉林省1952~2007年的粮食产量统计数据,建立了吉林省粮食产量的组合预测模型;并预测出了吉林省2008~2015年的粮食产量和年均增长率。
|
| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 时间序列模型 GM(1 1)预测模型 |
Application of Composition Forecasting Model in the Agricultural Economy Research |
| |
| ZHANG Hong-qin et al.Application of Composition Forecasting Model in the Agricultural Economy Research[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2008,36(22). |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Hong-qin |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the theory of optimum weighted composition modelling,the forecasting model which combined the time series model,the exponential smoothing model and GM(1,1) forecasting model was created with the data of the grain production during 1952 to 2007.At the same time,the future grain production and the rate was forecast from 2008 to 2015,which would offer the scientific basis for the development plan. |
| |
| Keywords: | Combination forecasting model Time series model GM(1 1)forecasting model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
