A geography of ecosystem vulnerability

Land-cover change and the subsequent potential loss of natural resources due to conversion to anthropogenic use is regarded as one of the more pervasive environmental threats. Population and road data were used to generate interpolated surfaces of land demand across a large region, the mid-Atlantic states of Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. The land demand surfaces were evaluated against land-cover change, as estimated using temporal decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In general, the interpolated surfaces exhibited a plateau along the eastern seaboard that sank to a valley in the center of the study area, and then rose again to a plateau in the west that was of overall lower height than the plateau on the eastern seaboard. The spatial pattern of land-cover change showed the same general pattern as the interpolated surfaces of land demand. Correlations were significant regardless of variations used to generate the interpolated surfaces. The results suggest that human activity is the principal agent of land-cover change at regional scales in this region, and that natural resources that change as land cover changes (e.g., water, habitat) are exposed to a gradient of vulnerability that increases from west to east.