基于农业发展不确定性的经济生态机制探讨

通过建立农业发展长效机制以解决农业发展的不确定性问题。笔者利用时间序列分析方法、经济学理论总结工农业发展的周期性规律特点和工农业协调发展的规律，基于农业发展的不确定性分析，探讨工农业协调发展以减少农业发展不确定性的可行性，并提出减少农业不确定性的制度安排及多层次政策体系。结果表明，对农业发展产生不确定性的冲击主要有自然条件及自然灾害、经济周期、知识经济时代下农业运用现代知识技术的短缺等3大冲击。降低这3大冲击，不仅是农业发展本身的需要，也是建立生态经济系统的需要。农村土地经营权拍卖机制、健全农村社会保障体制、加强农村财政转移支付、创新农村金融与保险体系等措施可以降低农业发展不确定性的风险。

Discussion on Economic and Ecological Mechanism Based on Agricultural Development Uncertainty

In order to solve the problem about agricultural development uncertainty by setting up the long-efficiency mechanism of agricultural development.The author made use of the time series analysis method and economic theory to summarize the periodicity of the development of industry and agriculture and the law of coordinated development of industry and agriculture.Based on the agricultural development uncertainty,the author probed into coordinated development of industry and agriculture in order to reduce the feasibility of agricultural development uncertainty and put forward the institutional arrangement and multi-levels policy systems on reducing agricultural uncertainty.The results showed that there were three impacts （natural conditions,natural disaster,the shortage of the knowledge of modern science and technology on agriculture in the period of economic cycle and knowledge economy） which had uncertain attacks on agricultural development.It was not only the need of agricultural development,but also the need of setting up ecological-economic system to reduce these attacks.We can carry out some measures to reduce the risk of agricultural development uncertainty,such as the auction mechanism of management right to rural land,perfecting the social security system,strengthening rural financial transfer payment,innovating rural finance and insurance system.