兰州市鲜蛋需求预测模型的研究

以兰州市1952年至1989年的有关统计资料,应用最小二乘法,建立了兰州市鲜蛋需求的多元线性回归预测模型与Box—Jenkins时间序列自回归预测模型AR(P)。经统计检验,两类预测模型均通过,同时指出了两类预测模型应用的条件与后果。本研究结果对有关部门制定经济政策、调整生产结构与加强科学化管理,均具有一定的实际指导意义。

Forecasting Models for Market Needs of Eggs in Lanzhou

Based on statistical data for 38 years, using the least square method, two forecasting models for market needs of eggs were established,ie a multiple linear regression model and a Box Jenkins time series autoregressiveAR.(P) model: Y=-2126. 057+14.2205X_2-124.0877X_3-9.1947X_4 +165.2693X_6 Y_t=1.1839229Y_(t-1)-0.1839229Y_(t-2)+68.24502 As a result of statistical hypothesis test, two established models were accepted.The conditions and consequences of applying the two forecasting models were discussed.