寄主植物调控棉铃虫种群对气候变暖的不对称响应

为明确全球气候变暖对不同寄主植物上棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera种群发生的影响，通过收集2008—2019年全国范围、华北地区、华东地区、西北地区及华中地区7种寄主植物（小麦、玉米、大豆、棉花、花生、蔬菜和其他粮食作物）上棉铃虫成灾面积及各地区平均温度数据，采用单因素方差分析法及广义线性模型分析不同寄主植物上棉铃虫种群的发生程度。结果显示，玉米、大豆、花生和蔬菜寄主植物上棉铃虫成灾面积显著增加，棉花上棉铃虫成灾面积显著降低。玉米（全国范围、华北地区）、花生（全国范围、华中地区）及蔬菜（华东地区）上棉铃虫成灾面积随着温度距平的升高而显著增加；但棉花上棉铃虫成灾面积随着温度距平的升高而显著降低。如全国范围内，在玉米和花生上，2014—2019年棉铃虫成灾面积均显著高于2008—2013年，其增加比率分别为24.0%和34.3%；在棉花上，2014—2019年棉铃虫成灾面积显著低于2008—2013年，其降低比率为62.0%。表明全球气候变暖显著增加了玉米、花生及蔬菜上棉铃虫成灾面积，而棉花上棉铃虫成灾面积的降低主要受转Bt基因棉花种植的影响。

The asymmetric responses of the cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera to global warming in different host crops

To determine the effects of global warming on the population occurrence of the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, in fields of different host plants, including wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, peanuts, vegetables and other crops, the data of damage areas of H. armigera and average temperatures in the whole China, northern China, eastern China, northwestern China and central China were collected during 2008-2019. The damage areas of H. armigera in these areas were analyzed by using one-way ANOVA and generalized linear model to compare the population occurrence degrees of H. armigera in different host plants. The results showed that the damage areas of H. armigera on corn, soybean, peanut and vegetable host plants increased significantly, while the damage area of H. armigera in cotton fields decreased significantly. The temperature anomaly significantly increased the damage areas of H. armigera on corn (whole China, northern China), peanut (whole China, central China), and vegetable (eastern China). However, the damage area of H. armigera on cotton plants significantly decreased with increasing temperature anomaly. For example, in the whole China, the damage area of H. armigera in 2014-2019 was significantly higher than that in 2008-2013 on maize and peanut, and the increasing rates were 24.0% and 34.3%, respectively. The damage area of H. armigera in 2014-2019 was significantly lower than that in 2008-2013 on cotton (reduced by 62.0%). It indicated that global warming significantly increased the damage area of H. armigera on corn, peanut and vegetable crops, while the decrease of H. armigera in cotton fields was mainly affected by transgenic Bt cotton planting.