近30年河南省能源消费与经济增长的典型相关分析

随着经济的快速发展,必然面临经济增长与能源短缺的矛盾问题。研究能源消费与经济增长之间的均衡关系对于解决该矛盾具有重要的意义。以1978—2010年河南省能源消费量与经济增长指标数据为基础,利用典型相关分析方法,分析经济增长对能源的依赖程度。研究结果表明河南省的能源消费仍以化石能源原煤和石油为主,以原煤和石油为代表的能源消费对经济的促进作用主要体现在人均GDP、工业和第三产业的增长上。该研究可为低碳经济背景下河南省的能源消费结构和经济结构的优化升级提供新思路。

Canonical Correlation Analysis of Relationships Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth of Henan Province in Recent 30 Years

With the rapid development of economy , the contradiction between economic growth and energy shortages must be faced. Studying the balanced relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was helpful for resolving the contradiction.Based on the data of the indexes of energy consumption and economic growth of Henan Province from 1978 to 2010 years , canonical correlation analysis was used to analyzed the dependence of economic growth on energy. The results showed that energy consumption in Henan Province was still dominated by fossil energy : energy consumption representative as coal and oil had significant effect on the growth of per capita GDP , GDP of industry and GDP of the tertiary industry. The result of this study could provide new ideas for the optimization and upgrading of energy consumption structure and economic structure of Henan Province under the background of low-carbon economy.