1998—2008年昆明主城发展与滇池水环境交互耦合机制分析

以昆明市为研究对象,应用层次分析法,采用复合指标评价体系对昆明市1998—2008年的城市化水平进行了测度;将滇池分为草海和外海,采用水质综合污染指数计算公式得到1998—2008年滇池的水质综合污染指数;引入环境库兹涅茨曲线,构建了城市化水平与水环境质量之间的耦合关系模型。研究结果表明:1998—2008年昆明城市化水平不断提高,前期(1998—2004年)城市化水平较低,发展速度慢;后期(2004—2008年)发展速度较快,2008年城市化水平达到74.7%;从水质综合污染指数计算结果可以看出,滇池水质受到严重污染,尤其是草海的水质综合污染指数超过标准值数倍以上;依据环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线模型,昆明市城市化水平与滇池水质综合污染指数基本呈倒U形,目前昆明城市化水平与水环境质量仍处于拮抗阶段。

Interactive Coupling Mechanism of Downtown Development of Kunming and Its Impact on Water Environment of Dianchi Lake in Period of 1998-2008

The paper took Kunming as a research object,using the AHP and composite index evaluation system to research the urbanization level of Kunming in the period of 1998-2008.It divided Dianchi Lake into Caohai and Waihai and obtained the water quality pollution composite index of the lake in the same period by using mathematical model of water pollution composite index.It introduced EKC to set up urbanization level and water environment of coupling relationship model.The outcomes show that:a) the urbanization level of Kunming increases continuously in that period.The growth rate is slow because the urbanization level is lower in the early stage(1998-2004);b) the growth rate is faster in the later stage(2004-2008) and the urbanization level in 2008 reaches to 74.7%;c) it can be seen from the results of water pollution composite index that the water quality of the lake is seriously polluted,especially the index of Caohai exceeds the standard index several times and;d) the urbanization level of Kunming and the water pollution composite index of Dianchi Lake is basically in inverted U-shape based on EKC inverted U-shape model.At present,the urbanization level and water environment quality are still in the stage of antagonist.