基于VAR模型的重庆市经济增长与环境污染的关系研究

选取1990-2006年间重庆市4个环境污染指标与经济增长指标,首先采用Johansen协整检验证明经济增长与环境污染物排放量间存在着长期稳定的关系,并以此建立向量自回归模型(VAR).然后应用VAR模型考察了重庆市经济增长与环境污染在时序维度上的相互影响机制和动态关联效应.结果表明,一方面,经济增长是影响重庆市污染排放量变化的重要原因,另一方面工业废水、工业粉尘、工业SO_2、工业固体废弃物排放量的增加对经济增长也存在着反作用力.经济增长指标对解释环境污染指标排放的预测方差分解的贡献度较高,环境污染指标排放对经济增长指标的预测方差的解释贡献度较小.

Abstract：

Johansen co-integration test was used to prove that economic growth and environmental pollution has a long-term and stable relationship, and then a VAR model was established to investigate the mecha-nisms and related effects in the temporal dimension based on the data of environmental pollution and eco-nomic growth during 1990-2006 in Chongqing. The results showed that economic growth is an important factor responsible for the change of the pollutant discharge in Chongqing, and on the other hand, the dis-charge of industrial waste water, industrial dust, industrial SO_2 and industrial solid waste also affect the growth of economy. The indicators of economic growth can interpret a large part of the emission of pollu-tion indicators, while the pollution indicators can only interpret a small part of the indicators of economic growth.

The Study on Relationship Between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Chongqing Base on VAR Model