基于"风险-效应"的土地利用空间冲突识别与测度

土地利用空间冲突是产生于土地利用变化过程中的一种客观现象,其会导致土地利用空间格局的失调,并带来一系列涉及社会、经济和生态的负面效应,关系到土地可持续利用。分析土地利用空间冲突的内涵和产生逻辑,对其进行准确的识别和测度,有助于国土空间结构的优化、促进区域可持续发展。该研究基于生态环境的视角,分析土地利用空间冲突的基本内涵,构建基于"风险-效应"的冲突识别测度方法;以内蒙古兴安盟为研究区,基于2000、2010、2020年的土地利用数据,结合空间分析、转移矩阵、标准差椭圆和密度分析,对兴安盟土地利用空间冲突进行了识别测度与时空演变分析。结果表明：1）生态环境视角下的土地利用空间冲突可以利用"冲突风险指数"和"生态环境质量指数"进行识别和测度;2）相比于2000-2010年,2010-2020年土地利用空间冲突面积有了显著增加,重度冲突区增幅较大;3）冲突区主体向兴安盟东南方向移动,在东部平原更加密集和集中。重度冲突区呈现出"从点到面"从分散到集中"的变化,并形成三大集聚区;4） "草地-耕地"是兴安盟重度冲突区内最主要的土地利用变化类型。确保生态用地竞争力,在脆弱的生态环境约束下合理调整草地和耕地的结构、科学安排农牧业生产是兴安盟缓解冲突的关键。本研究从理论、方法和应用3个层面对土地利用空间冲突进行了系统的研究和分析,为精准识别土地利用空间冲突、优化国土空间格局提供了相应的理论和实践参考。

Recognizing and measuring spatial conflict of land use via "risk-effect"

Abstract: Potential spatial conflicts arise as a result of different uses of land resources adjacent to each other. A tradeoff can be realized between economic development and ecological environment in recent years. Therefore, the spatial conflict of Land Use (SCLU) needs to be considered from the three dimensions of natural resources, space, as well as human rights and interests. There is also the continuous change of land use types in the spatial perspective. Therefore, it is a high demand to determine the location of potential SCLU from the perspective of the coordination between human activities and natural environment. In this study, an ecologically sensitive area was first chosen to clarify the connotation of SCLU from the perspective of ecological environment. Secondly, the conflict identification and measurement were constructed using the "risk effect" through "conflict risk index" and "ecological environment quality index". It was also considered the changes in landscape patterns and ecological environment caused by land use. Finally, a case study was carried out in the Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia, China, from 2000 to 2020. An emphasis was then placed on the construction of ecological civilization as a national strategy for the sustainable and healthy development of the economy. The SCLU caused two consequences: the change of spatial pattern and negative effects. The former was the general consequence of space conflict, whereas, the latter presented different issues under various conditions. Specifically, the fragments of space were differentiated to determine the optimal resource allocation, according to the natural value. The regional spatial pattern alleviated the contradiction between natural sources and land use. As such, there was no spatial conflict after the optimization of territorial spatial structure. The potential SCLU was also considered that the change of spatial pattern brought a certain risk of conflict, in order to prevent the possible negative effects during the assessment. The results showed that: 1) The SCLU was the proper consequence of the further intensification in the contradiction of land use, indicating a negative impact on the society, economy, and ecology. In essence, the SCLU was the representation of the potential spatial conflict of interest between the different stakeholders in the process of land use. 2) The grassland was dominated the land development and utilization in the study area, indicating a significant increase in the intensity of land use from 2010 to 2020, compared with the previous decade. The area of spatial conflict also increased significantly from 2010 to 2020, particularly with the relatively higher growth rate of severe conflict. The ever-increasing conflict risk and index of eco-environmental quality demonstrated the significant disturbance in the land system stability from 2010 to 2020. 3) The main fragments of the SCLU were gradually shifted to the southeast of Hinggan League over time, indicating that the more conflict zone was concentrated in the eastern plain. The severe SCLU evolved from the point to the regional distribution, and from the decentralized to centralized distribution. Correspondingly, three concentrated distribution areas then formed a severe conflict. 4) Some recommendations were given to gradually regulate and control the SCLU during this time. Since the transformation of grassland into cultivated land was the main type of land use change in the severe conflict zone, it was proper to rationally adjust the structure of grassland and cultivated land, in order to alleviate the spatial conflict for the coordinated development of agriculture and animal husbandry.