Analysis of the spatial variation of Bovine tuberculosis disease risk in Spain (2006-2009) |
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| Authors: | Allepuz A Casal J Napp S Saez M Alba A Vilar M Domingo M González M A Duran-Ferrer M Vicente J Alvarez J Muñoz M Saez J L |
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| Affiliation: | a Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA), UAB-IRTA, Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain;b Departament de Sanitat i Anatomia Animals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain;c Grupo de Trabajo de Epidemiología de la Dirección General de Recursos Agrícolas y Ganaderos, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y Medio Rural y Marino, 28071 Madrid, Spain;d Research Group on Statistics, Applied Economics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, Campus de Montilivi, 17071 Girona, Spain;e CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain;f Laboratorio de Sanidad y Producción Animal, Consejería de Agricultura y Pesca de la Junta de Andalucía, 41071 Sevilla, Spain;g Laboratorio Central de Sanidad Animal, Laboratorio Nacional de Referencia de Tuberculosis Animales, Spanish Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs, 18320 SantaFe-Granada, Spain;h IREC (CSIC – UCLM – JCCM), Ronda de Toledo s.n., 13005 Ciudad Real, Spain;i Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain;j Servicio de Sanidad Animal, Consellería do Medio Rural de la Xunta de Galicia, Santiago Compostela, Coruña, Spain;k Subdirección General de Sanidad de la Producción Primaria, Dirección General de Recursos Agrícolas y Ganaderos, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y Medio Rural y Marino, 28071 Madrid, Spain |
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| Abstract: | In this study we explored the spatial variation of Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) risk of being positive, new positive or persistently positive, as well as the risk of eliminating BTB in positive herds throughout Spain from 2006 to 2009 by means of hierarchical Bayesian models. The results of the models showed that the risk of infection (positive or new positive herds), persistence and elimination was lower in counties located in north and north-eastern of Spain, and in the Balearic and Canary islands than in the rest of the country. In some counties the risk of positivity was high during the four years of study, whereas there were others where the risk of positivity was high only in some of the years. With regard to the risk of persistence of BTB positive herds, counties located in the central, western and south-western part of the country had a higher risk in the three studied periods. This study has identified some specific areas of increased BTB risk in Spain, information that is useful for disease management. |
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| Keywords: | Bovine tuberculosis Disease mapping Bayesian hierarchical models Spatial epidemiology |
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