A New Imitative Model to Predict the Impact of Air Pollutants on Scots Pine Health and Radial Increment

In order to address the problem of pollutant effects on trees against the background of environmental fluctuations a simulation model using radial increment as an indicator of tree productivity is proposed. Ring times series of large trees provide one of the most acceptable biological indicators for the assessment of pollutant impact. This research focused on the tallest severely damaged and healthy trees growing close to each other in the surroundings of Jonava Mineral Fertilizer plant, which primarily emits nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) compounds. The annual increment was found to be strongly correlated with mean September air temperature of the previous year and S load. The correlation coefficient (k=0.961) between modelled and observed tree ring times series of severely damaged trees proves the impact of S load on growth and vitality of a tree and enables fulfillment of tree condition prognosis.