山西省粮食总产量波动的影响因素分析

为了解山西省粮食产量波动影响因素的影响机制及作用大小,利用1949~2009年粮食产量序列资料,采用波动指数分析了山西省粮食总产量的波动特性与波动幅度,并分析了粮食总产量波动的影响因素。从作物学原理研究（总产量=播种面积×单位面积产量）出发,进一步分析了粮食播种面积和单产波动对粮食总产量波动的影响大小。结果表明：单产是影响粮食总产量波动的主要因素,其次是粮食播种面积。1949~2009年,单产波动对粮食总产量波动的影响达79.68%,播种面积对粮食总产量波动的影响为18.07%。

Analysis on Influence Factors of the Grain Total Output Fluctuation in Shanxi Province

In order to understand the influence mechanism and function size of influence factors of grain yield fluctuation in Shanxi Province,it makes use of array material of grain yield during 1949-2009,and utilizes fluctuating index to analyze the fluctuation characteristics and fluctuating range of grain total output in Shanxi Province,and the influence factors of the grain total output fluctuation are analyzed.From the study of the crop principle:total output = sown area ×yield per unit area,it analyzes further grain sowing area and per unit area yield fluctuation to the influence size of the grain total output.The result shows that the per unit area output is the main factor of influencing the grain total yield fluctuation,the next one is the sown area of grain.During 1949-2009,the per unit area yield fluctuation to the influence of the grain total output fluctuation reaches 79.68%,and the sown area to the influence of grain total output fluctuation is 18.07%.