基于多智能体模型的银川平原土地利用情景模拟

基于多智能体模型研究了土地利用变化的模拟问题。以银川平原为例，以2002年和2014年的遥感影像为基础数据源，在对2002—2014年土地利用变化特征及其驱动因素分析的基础上，选取了政府、农户、城镇居民3种智能体，结合经分析选取的自然因素、社会因素和经济因素3方面5个主要驱动力因素对3种智能体的决策行为进行逐个分析，构建多智能体的行为规则，建立了基于多智能体模型的土地利用空间格局模拟模型。在此基础上，对研究区自然禀赋情景、社会经济发展情景、基本农田保护情景下的土地利用空间格局进行了模拟。结果表明，基于多智能体的土地利用模型能够较好地模拟复杂土地利用变化；在影响土地利用变化的各因素中，政策性因素对区域土地利用变化影响较为明显。

Scenario Simulation of Land Use in Yinchuan Plain Based on Multi-agent Model

The simulation of land use change was studied based on multi-agent model. This paper took Yinchuan Plain as a case study and chose the remote sensing images in 2002 and 2014 as data source. Based on the analysis of the land use pattern evolution and its driving actors, three kinds of agents: government, farmers and urban residents were selected as agents. The decision behavior of these three agents were analyzed combined with 5 factors selected from natural factors, social factors and economic factors and behavior rules of multi-agent were built. Finally, the basic data which were processed by ArcGIS, was imported into the model, and the simulation model of land use spatial pattern based on multi-agent model was established. Furthermore, in order to reveal the response relationship between land use pattern evolution and driving force factors, the study simulated land use pattern under three scenarios: natural increase scenario, rapid social economic development scenario, and basic farmland protection scenario. The simulation results can provide decision support for scientific planning and utilization of land in the study area.