基于气象因子的松墨天牛发生率空间格局研究

根据全国范围内2002-2012年松墨天牛逐年发生数据,选取发生松墨天牛虫害地级行政区的平均发生率作预测指标,在ClimateChina v4.40气候模拟软件中,计算出发生地区的气象数据。利用偏最小二乘回归,得到松墨天牛平均发生率与气象因子的回归方程,即松墨天牛平均发生率空间格局模型,并结合地理空间数据和属性数据,预测未来我国松墨天牛虫害的潜在变化趋势。结果显示:结合筛选的12个气象因子建立的松墨天牛平均发生率空间格局模型,预测精度为83.14%,据此预测松墨天牛平均发生率在2020s、2050s、2080s的空间格局与2002-2012年相比主要呈现出四川东部、贵州中部地区中度和重度虫害发生面积明显增加;湖南东部、江西西部和浙江西部地区虫害重度发生面积明显增加;陕西东南部虫害重度发生面积减少;山东东部、安徽中部虫害轻度发生面积明显缩减的趋势。

Research on Spatial Pattern of Monochamus alternatus's Occurrence Rate Based on Meteorological Factors

According to the data of China's Monochamus alternatus Hope occurrence in the period of 2002 to 2012, and taking the average occurrence rate of prefectures affected by the insect pest as a predictor, the meteorological data in those prefectures were calculated using a climate simulation software called ClimateChina v 4.40. By means of partial least squares regression, the regression equation about the average occurrence rate and meteorological factor, i.e. the spatial pattern model of average occurrence rate, was obtained to predict the future trend of potential changes on M. alternatus in China combined with the geospatial data and attribute data. The results showed that the spatial pattern model of M. alternatus' average occurrence rate built by 12 selected meteorological factors had high reliability. The prediction accuracy of the spatial pattern model was 83.14%. Based on the model, the spatial pattern of M. alternatus' average occurrence rate was predicted. The prediction results of the occurrence rate in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, showed that compared with the data of 2002-2012, the area with moderate or severe insect pest would be larger in eastern Sichuan, central Guizhou, eastern Hunan, western Jiangxi and western Zhejiang. The severe occurrence area in southeast Shaanxi would be less, while the mild occurrence area would decrease obviously in eastern Shandong and central Anhui.