2000-2015年河北省林地时空变化特征及驱动力

基于2000-2015年河北省土地利用数据，及可能影响河北省林地变化的主要经济指标数据，对河北省林地的空间变化特征及驱动力进行了分析。利用土地利用类型转移矩阵与土地利用动态度模型，对河北省土地利用进行了分析并得出林地的空间变化特征。结合河北省2000-2015年可能影响林地变化的经济指标数据，在R语言中利用msgps程序包实现了Adaptive-Lasso变量选择模型，选取了影响林地面积变化的主要经济因素。模型分析结果显示:2000-2015年，河北省林地面积整体呈增加趋势，林地转入量大于林地输出量，且与草地、耕地之间的相互转化最为突出，与河北省林地变化显著相关的重要解释变量中，年末总人口、农村居民可支配收入和城镇人口与林地面积变化呈正相关性，第一产业、财政收入、财政支出与农村人口数与林地面积变化呈负相关性，其中，农村居民可支配收入与财政收入为主导因素，且河北省的林地变化不仅与国家退耕还林政策相关，也与河北省的独特地理位置相关。该研究为河北省制定并实施林地资源保护与开发利用政策提供决策依据，该方法同时适用于全国其他地区的林地驱动力研究。

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Forest Change in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2015

Based on the land use data and the main economic indicators of Hebei Province from 2000 to 2015,this paper analysed the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of forest change in Hebei Province. Based on the land use type transfer matrix and land use dynamic model, we explored the spatiotemporal patterns and factors affecting forestland changes from 2000 to 2015 of Hebei Province. On the basis of this, we selected the economic index data which may affect the forest change and use the msgps package in the R language to realize the Adaptive-Lasso variable selection model, and then selected the main economic factors that affect the forest land change. The results showed that from 2000 to 2015 the overall area of woodland showed the increasing trend. The land area transferred into forestland was more than the forestland area transferred into the other lands, and the transformation between grassland and cultivated land is the most prominent. Among the important explanatory variables that are significantly related to forestland changes in Hebei Province, the total population at the end of the year, the disposable income of rural residents and the urban population showed the positive correlation with the change of forest area in Hebei Province. The first industry, fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure and rural population were negatively correlated with the forest area. Among them, the disposable income of rural residents and fiscal revenue are the leading factors. The change of forestland in Hebei Province is not only related to the policy of returning farmland to forest, but also related to the unique geographical location of Hebei Province. This study method is suitable for the study of forestland driving force in other regions of China,and these results can provide the decision-making basis for the formulation and implementation of forest resource protection and development and utilization policies in Hebei Province.