近35年松嫩沙地风沙-植被动态演变及模拟预测

在全球气候变化与人类活动影响下，松嫩沙地风沙—植被发生了明显变化。基于Landsat系列影像与该区气象、社会经济数据，分析了1980—2015年松嫩沙地风沙—植被动态演变过程及驱动因素，并对其未来发展变化进行了模拟预测。结果表明:近35 a该区风沙地貌面积呈波动增加趋势，净增355.00 km²，变幅21.43%，其中2000年达最大值，而后持续减少；植被覆盖面积总体减少了812.29 km²，其中，高、低植被覆盖区面积呈波动减少趋势，分别减少了7 919.35，15 479.84 km²，而中植被覆盖区面积呈增加趋势，净增22 587.90 km²；风沙覆盖面积与低植被覆盖区面积呈显著负相关。根据预测，到2020年松嫩沙地风沙地貌面积仍呈减少趋势，植被覆盖面积有所增加，尤其低植被覆盖区面积增长明显，达4 292.95 km²。松嫩沙地风沙—植被动态演变受控于区域气候变化和社会经济发展，且与社会经济因素相关性较强。研究为松嫩沙地风沙治理及区域持续发展提供科学依据。

Dynamic Evolution and Simulation Prediction of Aeolian Vegetation in Songnen Sandy Land in Recent 35 Years

Under the influence of global climate change and human activities, aeolian sand-vegetation has changed obviously in Songnen Sand Land. Based on the Landsat series images, the meteorological and socio-economic data of the study area, the dynamic evolution process and driving factors of aeolian sand—vegetation were analyzed in Songnen Sandy Land during 1980 to 2015. Then the future development of the vegetation was simulated and predicted. The results showed that, the area of aeolian sandy landform increased by 355.00 km² in recent 35 years, with increase rate of 21.43%, which reached up tp the maximum in 2000, and then continued to decrease; the vegetation area decreased by 812.29 km², while the area of high and low vegetation area fluctuated downward, and decreased by 7 919.35 km² and 15 479.84 km², respectively; The middle vegetation coverage area increased with net increase of 22 587.90 km²; the sand cover area was negatively correlated with the area of low vegetation coverage. According to prediction, the area of aeolian sandy landform in Songnen Sandy Land showed the decreasing trend in 2020, while the vegetation coverage increased, the low vegetation coverage area increased by 4 292.95 km². The dynamic evolution of aeolian sand—vegetation in Songnen Sandy Land was controlled by regional climate change and social economic development, and had a strong correlation with social and economic factors. This study can provide scientific basis for sandstorm control and regional sustainable development in Songnen Sandy Land.