基于信息扩散理论的南方双季早稻气象灾害风险评估

小满寒（GBC）和高温热害（HTD）是影响南方双季早稻生长发育及产量形成最主要的农业气象灾害。为了提高双季早稻气象灾害的预测预报能力，利用双季稻区142个站点1960-2012年常规气象观测数据，根据前人研究的关于小满寒和高温热害临界气象指标，统计分析各站点历年发生小满寒和高温热害次数，运用信息扩散理论对双季早稻种植区各站点进行精细化风险评估。结果表明：（1）双季早稻小满寒及高温热害年平均发生次数空间分布差异显著，小满寒发生次数由南向北大致呈逐级递增趋势，呈明显的带状分布，高温热害频发区主要集中在湖南衡阳、双峰、郴州一带，江西大部分地区以及浙江金华、衢州、丽水附近，湖北甲鱼、武汉、黄石以及安徽安庆部分地区。（2）小满寒和高温热害至少发生1次及以上的概率值空间分布特征较为相似，大部分地区均表现为明显的高概率区，重现期较短，再现率较高；小满寒及高温热害超越概率值低概率区随着年发生次数的增加而逐渐减小。（3）随着年发生次数的明显增加，早稻小满寒及高温热害重现期短的站点数减少，重现期长的站点数相应增加。

Risk Assessment for Meteorological Disasters of Early Rice in the Southern Double- Season Region Based on Information Diffusion Theory

Grain buds cold and high temperature damage are the most important agro-meteorological disasters affecting growth-development and yield formation of early rice in southern China.In order to improve the forecasting ability of double-season early rice meteorological disasters, in this paper, based on critical meteorological indicators related to grain buds cold and high temperature damage of previous studies, conventional meteorological observation data was used coming from 142 basic stations of double-season rice regions from 1960 to 2012, the occurrence for grain buds cold and high temperature damage was analyzed. Using information diffusion theory, conducted a refined risk assessment for different stations of early rice planting area. The results showed that, (1)annual mean numbers for early rice grain buds cold and high temperature damage distributed significant difference, and annual mean numbers for early rice grain buds cold basically showed progressively increasing from south to north, showing obvious zonal distribution. However, prone areas of high temperature damage mainly located in Hengyang, Shuangfeng, Binzhou areas of Hunan Province, and most parts in Jiangxi of Province areas, and Jinhua, Quzhou, Lishui of Zhejiang Province, and Jiayu, Wuhan, Huangshi Hubei Province, and some areas of Anqing in Anhui Province.(2)The spatial distribution characteristics of transcend probability value occurred in least one time and above for grain buds cold and high temperature damage were similar, and most areas showed significant high probability areas, as well as shorter return period and higher reproduction rate. The low probability zone of transcend probability value for grain buds cold and high temperature damage decreased as the number of years of occurrence increases.(3)With the significant increase in the number of occurrences, the station numbers of short return period for grain buds cold and high temperature damage of early rice reduced and station numbers of longer return period corresponding increased.