西北地区东部群发性强沙尘暴风险分析

在沙尘暴发生规律的研究中存在着复杂性和不确定性,现实中,我们很难用状态方程对其进行精确的描述。利用风险分析方法,对沙尘暴的发生规律进行不确定性意义下的量化分析,可以得到有用的知识。本文建立了基于直方图统计方法的强沙尘暴风险估计模型,是区别于传统沙尘暴研究方法的一种探索。利用1954-2001年的沙尘暴记录,对中国西北地区东部群发性强沙尘暴年内发生风险进行了计算。结果表明,该地区群发性强沙尘暴每年出现的风险值为0.8541,而年内出现次数大于8次的可能性几乎为0,群发性强沙尘暴在该地区每年平均出现2次,研究结果对研究地区强沙尘暴的认识和防治具有指导意义。

Risk Analysis of Severe Group Dust-storms in the Eastern Part of Northwest China

The dust storm study is complex and uncertain.the precise dynamic equationsfor dust stormsare not well established,but using risk analysis method,it is certainto enrich the understanding of them.In this paper,a risk estimationmodel was established for severe dust storm based on histogram approach,which provided a newway for dust storms research.Using the historical dust storms data from 1954-2001,the risk values of the occurrence of severe group dust-storms in eastern part of Northwest China were calculated.The resultsshowed that the risk value is 0.8541 every year.The probability of eight or greater than eight times of dust storms is very little,and there are two occurrences in this area by average in a year.Theywould be significant in supplyinguseful quantitativeinformation for decision analysis to recognize and prevent severe dust storms.