Diagnostic Efficacy of a Single Progesterone Determination to Assess Full‐Term Pregnancy in the Bitch

In clinical settings, when the reproductive history of a near‐term bitch is limited to mating dates, the possibility to accurately assess whether pregnancy is at term could be very useful in order to be able to plan a correct management of parturition or to safely perform an elective Caesarean section. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic efficacy of a single progesterone determination, measured by chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA), in predicting the occurrence of parturition on the following day. At least one blood sample was collected from 51 pre‐partum bitches during the 3 days before parturition and on day of parturition. The efficacy of progesterone as a marker of the end of pregnancy was tested using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Youden's index was calculated to select the optimal cut‐off value (with 95% confidence interval), aiming at maximizing the correct identification of negative events, so not to risk to diagnose as full term a bitch which is not. Progesterone concentration lower than 3.4 ng/ml correctly identified the bitches whelping the following day; however, because of the obliged prudential approach, sensitivity was low (46.88%), and 17 of 32 full‐term bitches were missed. Due to a very large individual variation, a single progesterone determination has low diagnostic efficacy, although it can represent a useful first screening.