| GM(1,1)模型在滦河下游地区地下水位预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周振民,赵明亮,李玲.GM(1,1)模型在滦河下游地区地下水位预测中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 周振民 赵明亮 李玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011
2. 华北水利水电学院水利职业学院,郑州,450011 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“滦河下游区域水资源高效利用关键技术研究”(20081015) |
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| 摘 要： | 首先对GM(1,1)模型的结构进行了研究和改进,给出了模型参数计算方法和精度检验方法.依据所建GM(1,1)模型,选用滦河下游地区节水工程改造后地下水位资料,对滦河下游地区地下水动态进行分析和数值模拟,利用实测资料对计算结果进行了验证.研究表明,模型预测拟合精度高,方法简便,可操作性强,对灌区地下水位预测评价和地下水合理开发利用具有一定的实用价值.
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 滦河下游 节水改造 地下水位预测 |
The Application of GM(1,1) Model to the Prediction of Underground Water Level in the Downstream of the Luanhe River |
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| ZHOU Zhen-min
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ZHAO Ming-liang
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LI Ling.The Application of GM(1,1) Model to the Prediction of Underground Water Level in the Downstream of the Luanhe River[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(2). |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Zhen-min ZHAO Ming-liang LI Ling |
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| Institution: | ZHOU Zhen-min1,ZHAO Ming-liang1,LI Ling2(1.North China Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Zhengzhou 450011,China,2.The Hydroelectric Vocational College of North China Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,China) |
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| Abstract: | First and foremost,this paper works the calculation method of model parameters as well as accuracy-testing method by studying and improving the structure of GM(1,1)model.According to the established GM(1,1)model and by selecting materials of level of groundwater after water-saving project engineering in the downstream of the Luanhe River an analysis and numerical simulation is conducted of dynamic groundwater.And then calculated results are verified with measured data.The results show that thanks to its hig... |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model downstream of the Luanhe River water-saving reform underground water level forecast |
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