| 基于降水随机模拟的旱作区农业旱情等级划分方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王斌,付强,王忠波,魏永霞. 基于降水随机模拟的旱作区农业旱情等级划分方法[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2011, 0(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | 王斌 付强 王忠波 魏永霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51009026) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对早作区农业旱情等级的划分依据问题,以黑龙江省甘南县为例,建立了能够模拟时段降水量的随机模型,验证了该模型的有效性并模拟了1 000年的降水序列,提出考虑降水量和作物需水量的缺水率指标,应用模拟的降水序列,采取降水量距平百分比和缺水率两种指标分析了甘南县遭受不同等级干旱的概率,并应用提出的缺水率指标划分了甘南县的农业旱情等级.结果表明,将降水的随机模拟与缺水率指标结合起来划分甘南县农业旱情等级的方法是可行的,与甘南县的实际干旱情况吻合良好.
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| 关 键 词： | 旱作区 降水模拟 农业干旱 旱情等级 |
Agricultural Drought Division Level Based on Stochastic Rainfall Model for Dry Farming Area |
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| WANG Bin , FU Qiang , WANG Zhong-bo , WEI Yong-xia. Agricultural Drought Division Level Based on Stochastic Rainfall Model for Dry Farming Area[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2011, 0(3) |
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| Authors: | WANG Bin FU Qiang WANG Zhong-bo WEI Yong-xia |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Bin,FU Qiang,WANG Zhong-bo,WEI Yong-xia(College of Water Conservancy and Architectural Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the problem of how to divide agricultural drought levels,a stochastic model is established to simulate the long series rainfall data,and a method is presented based on the rainfall data.This paper verifies the effectiveness of this model and simulates a 1 000-year rainfall data of Gannan county in Heilongjiang Province,and puts forward a new drought index that gives consideration to rainfall and crop water requirement(Dw).Dw and the percentage of rainfall anomaly(Dp) are used as examples and th... |
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| Keywords: | dry farming area rainfall simulation agricultural drought drought level |
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