马来西亚吉隆坡市土地利用变化特征分析与预测

[目的] 揭示快速城市化过程中港口城市土地利用景观格局变化规律，为当地编制土地利用规划提供科学依据。[方法] 以马来西亚吉隆坡市2000，2005，2010，2015，2020年5期遥感影像为基础数据，基于交互式数据语言（IDL），采用指数分类法提取土地利用信息，并应用RS，GIS技术和景观生态学方法对吉隆坡市2000—2020年土地利用景观格局变化进行研究，最后采用灰色预测模型预测2025年吉隆坡市土地利用数据。[结果] 2000—2020年吉隆坡市种植园和林地大幅减少，建设用地迅速增加，港口与城市圈中部区域种植园主要转化为建设用地；土地利用景观形状趋于复杂化、不规则化，景观类型空间连通性降低，景观异质性增强；2025年吉隆坡市建设用地和种植园面积分别为1 624.12 km²和2 216.99 km²，与往年相比，建设用地增加，种植园减少。[结论] 2025年吉隆坡市土地利用类型仍主要以种植园为主。宏观来看，随着城市的快速发展，种植园的数量持续减少。未来发展规划需进一步合理规划土地利用方式，提高土地利用效率，加大对种植园的保护力度。

Analysis and Prediction of Land-Use Change Characteristics in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

[Objective] The change trend in land-use patterns of a port city during rapid urbanization was studied to provide a scientific basis for local land-use planning.[Methods] This research used five remote sensing images of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020) as the source data. The index classification method was used to extract land-use information based on the interactive data language (IDL), and RS and GIS technology along with landscape ecology methods were used to study the change of the land-use landscape pattern of Kuala Lumpur from 2000 to 2020. Finally, the grey prediction model was used to predict land-use data for Kuala Lumpur in 2025.[Results] From 2000 to 2020, Kuala Lumpur''s plantation and forest land decreased significantly, whereas construction land increased rapidly; plantations in the central part of the port and in the city circle were mainly converted into construction lands. The landscape shape of land use tended to be complex and irregular, the spatial connectivity of landscape types was reduced, and the landscape heterogeneity was enhanced. The estimated areas of construction land and plantation in Kuala Lumpur in 2025 were 1624.12 km² and 2216.99 km², respectively. Compared with previous years, the area of construction land will increase and the area of plantations will decrease.[Conclusion] In 2025, the main land-use type in Kuala Lumpur will still be plantation. From a macro perspective, with the rapid development of cities, the number of plantations will continue to decrease. Future development plans need to rationally plan land-use patterns, improve land-use efficiency, and strengthen the protection of plantations.