林业产业结构升级对林业经济波动的熨平效应分析——以我国黑龙江省为例

文中利用HP滤波法对林业产出、林业资本、林业劳动、林业产业结构升级以及林业生态政策进行趋势成分剥离，从而得到相应的波动指标；在此基础上构建时变参数状态空间模型分析林业产业结构升级对林业经济波动的影响，并以我国黑龙江省为例进行实证分析。结果表明:黑龙江省林业产业结构升级对林业经济波动具有明显的熨平效应，但是随着时间的推移这种熨平效应愈加平稳。

Analysis of Flattening Impact of Forestry Industrial Restructuring on Forestry Economical Fluctuation: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province in China

This paper uses the HP filter method to strip the trend components of indexes of total forestry output, forestry capitals, forestry labor, forestry industrial restructuring, and forestry ecological policy, from which the corresponding fluctuation indexes are obtained.On this basis, a time-varying parameter state space model is constructed to analyze the impact of the forestry industry restructuring on the fluctuation of the forestry economy.Heilongjiang Province is taken as a case for empirical analysis.The results show that the forestry industry restructuring in Heilongjiang Province achieves the obvious flattening impact on forestry economical fluctuation.However, this flattening impact becomes more and more smooth over time.